In prospect theory, the pseudocertainty effect is people’s tendency to perceive an outcome as certain while in fact it is uncertain.[1] It is observed in multi-stage decisions, in which evaluation of outcomes in previous decision stage is discarded when making an option in subsequent stages. Example Kahneman and Tversky (1986) illustrated the pseudocertainty effect by the following examples. First, […]
Monthly Archives: April 2014
Pro-innovation bias
In diffusion of innovation theory, a pro-innovation bias is the belief that an innovation should be adopted by whole society without the need of its alteration. The innovation’s “champion” has such strong bias in favor of the innovation, that he/she may not see its limitations or weaknesses and continues to promote it nonetheless.
Pessimism bias
Pessimism bias is an effect in which people exaggerate the likelihood that negative things will happen to them. It contrasts with optimism bias. The difference is that we are in an improbable way worried about our society’s future.Conversely, optimism bias is a tendency to underestimate personal risks and overestimate the likelihood of positive life events. Depressed people are particularly likely […]
Availability cascade
Availability cascade, also known as The truth effect, the illusory truth effect or the illusion-of-truth effect is the tendency to believe information to be correct because we are exposed to it more times. Explanation The effect was first named and defined following the results in a study from 1977. Participants in it were given a list of 60 factoids which were plausible, but […]
Conjunction fallacy
The conjunction fallacy is a formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. The most often-cited example of this fallacy originated with Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman: Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of […]
Memes
Memes are the smallest units of cultural meaning. A meme is a unit that carries cultural ideas, behaviors, or styles from one person to another in a culture. Memes carry cultural ideas, symbols, and practices that are transmitted from one mind to another through writing, language, gestures, rituals, or other means that can be imitated. Memes are thought to […]
Observer-expectancy effect
The observer-expectancy effect (also called the experimenter-expectancy effect, expectancy bias, observer effect, or experimenter effect) is a form of reactivity in which a researcher’s cognitive bias causes them to unconsciously influence the participants of an experiment. Confirmation bias can lead to the experimenter interpreting results incorrectly because of the tendency to look for information that […]
Confusion Inducing Questions
What’s something really important that you’re just not thinking about right now? If there’s no future in the past should you forget this tomorrow? When can you continue to change if you’re about to decide that isn’t now a good time? What wouldn’t happen if you didn’t? How do you find that? Where does that […]
Negative Commands
But – negates any words that are stated before it If – presupposes that you may not Would have – past tense that draws attention to things that didn’t actually happen. Should have – past tense that draws attention to things that didn’t actually happen (implies guilt) Could have – past tense that draws attention […]